Accuracy of Zillow Park City Property Value Estimates (2020 Update)

Zestimates® are the estimate of a home’s value on the website Zillow.com. They are sometimes used by real estate clients to discuss the list price or initial offer on a home. But how accurate are the Zillow Park City property value estimates?

I wrote a blog about this subject 5 years ago. In that case study, the Zestimate was anywhere from 100% of the sale price to 60%. Let’s see what, if anything, is different with Zillow’s estimates in 2020.

Once again, I am selecting 6 single family homes that closed within the last 7 days. Coincidentally, I represented the buyer for one of these properties. The closed price is the market value because that is what a buyer actually paid for the home. Each home I chose for my study is in a different Park City neighborhood. I compared the list price, sold price and Zestimate.

Zillow’s Zestimate vs. Actual Sold Price in Park City

Deer Valley

7965 Royal Street E
List price: $3,875,000
Sold price: $3,565,000
Zestimate:$3,567,919
Zestimate Accuracy: 100.08%

Park Meadows Neighborhood

3109 Mountain Ridge Court
List price: $2,350,000
Sold price: $2,250,000
Zestimate: $2,251,842
Zestimate Accuracy: 100.08%

Canyons Neighborhood

247 White Pine Lane
List price:$6,995,000
Sold price: $6,500,000
Zestimate: $6,505,352
Zestimate Accuracy: 100.08%

Sun Peak Neighborhood

3986 Voelker Ct
List price: $1,195,000
Sold price: $1,180,000
Zestimate: $1,146,141
Zestimate Accuracy: 97.13%

Jeremy Ranch Neighborhood

2730 Daybreaker Drive
List price:$1,225,000
Sold price: $1,163,500
Zestimate: $1,164,452
Zestimate Accuracy: 100.08%

Promontory Neighborhood

7871 West Hills Trail
List price: $2,500,000
Sold price: $2,475,000
Zestimate: $2,477,026
Zestimate Accuracy: 100.08%

The Zestimates of these closed homes are spot on, which tells me Zillow is receiving sold data from the Park City Multiple Listing Service. Utah is a non-disclosure state (meaning sold prices are not accessible to the public), so this data could only available through the MLS.

I looked at some homes that are currently active and pending, and the Zestimates seem to be within 10% of the asking price, whether or not that price makes sense. Next I looked up my own home, and since the square footage was off, the Zestimate was off by about 20%. I looked up other homes that are “off market” and the Zestimate was completely inconsistent with value.

Conclusion

What’s changed in 5 years? Zillow is reporting accurate sold data. However, Zillow’s reporting of active, pending and off-market listings are still unreliable.